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tspfolio  
#1 Posted : Tuesday, January 10, 2012 2:25:28 AM(UTC)
tspfolio

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Here's a summary of the TSP Fund performance as of the end of 2011. The best 1-year performance was 8.25% for the F Fund. The worst was -11.34% for the I Fund:

TSP Fund:                            C Fund   F Fund   G Fund     I Fund    S Fund
1-Year Return                         2.09%    8.25%    2.46%    -11.34%    -3.84%
3-Year Annual Return                 14.71%    6.76%    2.75%      7.41%    20.10%
5-Year Annual Return                 -0.20%    6.62%    3.37%     -4.51%     1.82%
10-Year Annual Return                 3.03%    5.77%    4.01%      4.85%     7.40%
Annual Return Since 4/30/1987         8.60%    7.35%    5.78%      4.36%     8.89%
Annualized Standard Deviation        18.36%    4.04%    0.00%     19.63%    21.45%
Maximum Drawdown                    -55.22%   -5.15%    0.00%    -60.89%   -57.43%
Sharpe Ratio                          0.24     0.39     -          0.03      0.25
Value of $1,000 invested on 4/30/87  $7659    $5757    $4002      $2865     $8170

For daily updates, go to http://www.tspfolio.com/tspfunds where you can also get historical price and drawdown charts for each individual fund.




-- TSP Folio <a href="http://www.tspfolio.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">www.tspfolio.com</a>
fedman53  
#2 Posted : Tuesday, January 10, 2012 3:39:14 AM(UTC)
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In late 2010 I moved everything out of the C, S and I into F. Glad I did.   Markets were going up and down based on feelings or what someone said, not on facts and reality. I don't see things that great for 2012. Market up today on good feelings, but not much good news and reality out there. I'm waiting
Fed1969  
#3 Posted : Tuesday, January 10, 2012 10:48:59 AM(UTC)
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With the economy improving, hopefully the C, S, and I funds will do better in 2012.
fedman53  
#4 Posted : Tuesday, January 10, 2012 8:15:45 PM(UTC)
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I agree, the economy is slowly, very slowly improving in certain areas, but there are still big negatives out there. The markets (basically C) have been up recently on very over optimistic views which, I feel, are not in step with reality.
TwoUnderPar  
#5 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 1:46:40 AM(UTC)
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I would expect the F fund to start doing poorly (less well) within the next couple of years due to an inevitable increase in interest rates.  Conversely, I would expect the I fund to do better when more of the sovereign debt issues get hammered out (at least in-part).  It will be interesting to watch how the I fund reacts when significant EU nation debt rolls over in March.
 
The S fund has done pretty well the last 10 days so I took some gains off the table today and transferred a portion back to G.
<font size="1"><font color=BLUE>Retired December 2011 at age 55 years-2 weeks-6 days.</font></font>
fedman53  
#6 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 2:34:40 AM(UTC)
fedman53

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Again I agree, but the key factor, as stated, is a couple of years (minimum). When looked at weekly, many funds look great. But they have not and I don't expect will perform consistently..month to month to month. We have limited interfund transfers, so must use wisely.

I don't see the EU resolving quickly - Greece, with bailouts and debt forgivness is still getting deeper in debt, bonds selling at 7%. Hungary, who is not cooperating with EU/IMF is weeks away from default. Germany, the #1 financer is faultering, below projections. France the #2 financer is faultering and on verge of downgrade. UK, Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Spain, are bearly holding or going negative. China is slowing as they sell to USA and EU. Layoff occurring there, which is unheard of

In USA, Consumer debt for Nov increased to highest in 10 years. People were spending for holidays... on Credit!, 28% of homes still underwater and increasing. Foreclousers are still rampant as we come up on the Spring selling season. Unemployment is somewhat better, but usually is with NOV/DEC seasonal hires..EOM Jan figures will tell. Many that were holding $15 - 20 jobs are now employed at $8 - 10 jobs..employed yes..but enough spendable income to get things back on track...?? (70% of economy is consumer spending). Even the Gov't says get employment back on track, we need a sustained 250,000 jobs per month..still not happening, as the Gov't consistently downgrades the prior months employment figures - markets don't seem to pay attention to that.

Crude is back up. Last time it hit $115 (Feb 11), we started to regress back into recession (double dip). If crude keeps rising consumers will again divert spendable income to gas.

These are not 'short term' fixes, but the markets seem to look at them as such. So when bad news is not as bad as they hoped, they are happy. Problem is when the bad news is really bad there is only one place the markets will go.
Fed1969  
#7 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 5:40:52 AM(UTC)
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TwoUnderPar wrote:

I would expect the F fund to start doing poorly (less well) within the next couple of years due to an inevitable increase in interest rates.  Conversely, I would expect the I fund to do better when more of the sovereign debt issues get hammered out (at least in-part).  It will be interesting to watch how the I fund reacts when significant EU nation debt rolls over in March.
 
The S fund has done pretty well the last 10 days so I took some gains off the table today and transferred a portion back to G.

I am concerned about the I fund because of all the issues in Europe and China.  Hopefully it be to our benefit.
FlatBroke  
#8 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 10:56:39 AM(UTC)
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There is an I in the middle China but likely very little if any China in the I Fund.
Fed1969  
#9 Posted : Wednesday, January 11, 2012 10:49:00 PM(UTC)
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FlatBroke wrote:
There is an I in the middle China but likely very little if any China in the I Fund.

The I fund by definition includes investments in the far east.  I did not find what countries are included in the TSP far east definition. But I think China could be included.
tspfolio  
#10 Posted : Thursday, January 12, 2012 12:39:53 AM(UTC)
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The TSP I Fund tracks the MSCI EAFE index, which invests in ~23 developed market countries. China is not included in this list. Here's the fact sheet from MSCI (PDF file).





-- TSP Folio <a href="http://www.tspfolio.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">www.tspfolio.com</a>
Fed1969  
#11 Posted : Thursday, January 12, 2012 3:32:15 AM(UTC)
Fed1969

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tspfolio wrote:
The TSP I Fund tracks the MSCI EAFE index, which invests in ~23 developed market countries. China is not included in this list. Here's the fact sheet from MSCI (PDF file).






Thank you for the information.
tspfolio  
#12 Posted : Wednesday, February 29, 2012 9:47:28 AM(UTC)
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Here's the latest summary of TSP Fund performance as of the end of February 2012. The stock funds have had a great year so far: 11.88% YTD for the U.S. small cap S Fund, 10.77% for international stocks (I Fund) and just over 9% for the U.S. large cap C Fund. Not surprisingly, bond fund performance has been much lower but still a respectable almost 1% YTD return for the F Fund.

TSP Fund:                         C Fund  F Fund  G Fund  I Fund  S Fund
YTD Return                         9.03%   0.93%   0.25%  10.77%  11.88%
1-Year Return                      5.16%   8.48%   2.24%  -7.68%   2.16%
3-Year Annual Return              25.63%   7.64%   2.70%  20.15%  31.66%
5-Year Annual Return               1.63%   6.50%   3.26%  -2.82%   3.54%
10-Year Annual Return              4.19%   5.75%   3.90%   6.37%   8.57%
Annual Return Since 4/30/1987      8.92%   7.34%   5.75%   4.76%   9.32%
Annualized Standard Deviation     18.31%   4.03%      0%  19.60%  21.41%
Maximum Drawdown                 -55.22%  -5.15%      0% -60.89% -57.43%
Sharpe Ratio                        0.26    0.39     -      0.05    0.26
Value of $1,000 invested in 4/87  $8,351  $5,810  $4,012  $3,174  $9,140


For daily updates, go to http://www.tspfolio.com/tspfunds where you can also get historical price and drawdown charts for each individual fund.



-- TSP Folio <a href="http://www.tspfolio.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">www.tspfolio.com</a>
tspfolio  
#13 Posted : Monday, April 02, 2012 12:47:40 AM(UTC)
tspfolio

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UPDATE as of the end of March 2012: March turned out to be another month of solid gains for most of the TSP funds. The C Fund had its biggest first quarter advance since 1998: a gain of 12.63%. All TSP funds except the I fund have now fully recovered their losses during the 2008 recession, and are breaking new highs.

TSP Fund:                           C Fund   F Fund   G Fund   I Fund   S Fund
YTD Return                          12.63%    0.32%    0.39%   10.91%   14.45%
1-Year Return                        8.40%    7.78%    2.12%   -5.45%    2.72%
3-Year Annual Return                24.01%    6.97%    2.66%   18.20%   29.73%
5-Year Annual Return                 2.07%    6.37%    3.20%   -3.29%    3.78%
10-Year Annual Return                4.14%    5.86%    3.87%    5.77%    8.10%
Annual Return Since 4/30/1987        9.03%    7.29%    5.74%    4.75%    9.39%
Annualized Standard Deviation       18.29%    4.03%       0%   19.59%   21.39%
Maximum Drawdown                   -55.22%   -5.15%       0%  -60.89%  -57.43%
Sharpe Ratio                          0.26     0.38      -       0.05     0.27
Value of $1,000 invested in 4/87    $8,627   $5,775   $4,018   $3,178   $9,350

For daily updates, go to http://www.tspfolio.com/tspfunds where you can also get historical price and drawdown charts for each individual fund.




-- TSP Folio <a href="http://www.tspfolio.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">www.tspfolio.com</a>
Fed1969  
#14 Posted : Monday, April 02, 2012 4:43:03 AM(UTC)
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The first quarter of 2012 has been great with the C, I, and S funds all having over 10% gains.  I expect gains to be at a lower rate for the rest of 2012.
tspfolio  
#15 Posted : Monday, April 02, 2012 5:48:16 AM(UTC)
tspfolio

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Absolutely, a little "mean reversion" after such a big run-up would be very normal...

-- TSP Folio <a href="http://www.tspfolio.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">www.tspfolio.com</a>
stofed  
#16 Posted : Thursday, May 17, 2012 3:47:54 PM(UTC)
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How is your little mean reversion going now?  

More Litigation = Less Corruption
Lionjudah  
#17 Posted : Friday, July 13, 2012 2:52:42 AM(UTC)
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I have been having some real concerns about the TSP and what has been happening on Wall Street in the last few years.  The Bernie Madoff 60 Billion dollor Ponsi sceem and that's a B for Billions! ! ! And other banks who manage pension funds, like the TSP have been found ripping off the funds members for decades.  Harry Marcopolos investigated and embarrassed the SEC by showing the evidence of what he uncovered on Bernie Madoff and has found companies running pension funds fraudulently manipulating the members buys and sells of shares they wanted to get into and out of.  Some of the things he's  uncovered is incredible but not unexpected when Funds are not transparent to your questions.  The following are some of his revealing comments:
"Every day, every time a state pension fund traded, the bank would steel approximately three tenths of one percent from every transaction. As an example, every time a pension fund bought a currency what the Bank of New York (Mellon) would do is look back twenty hours and assign all of the state pension funds purchase transactions at the high of the day."

"Every time a state pension fund tried to sell a currency they would assign them a price at the lows of the day and the bank would pocket the difference. The bank has done this for not years, but for decades, every business day for decades. This bank didn’t learn to steal just ten years ago, they’ve been doing it for many decades."  - Harry Marcopolos

For years I suspected something like this because when I got in the G, F, C, S, or I fund and when I got out.  It seemed that I lost a lot more than a minimal charge that the TSP charges.  TSP Fund doesn't have any one like the managers you can contact and the Fund is very distant as far as talking the administrators of the Huge government employee fund.  There are a lot bigger funds that run in the Trillions but I think an financial independent
 team like Mr. Harry Marcopolos should review the TSP for all us and our fellow employees.
And have this report very accessible on the TSP website Home page.

I would highly suggest anyone who is reading this to look up on the internet You Tube and type in Harry Marcopolos No One Would Listen.

Thanks, 

Paul Martin
Marxy  
#18 Posted : Tuesday, July 17, 2012 3:31:37 PM(UTC)
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Thank you for all of this great information!  

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